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Crystal Ball Report
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A Monte Carlo implementation by www.decisioneering.com.
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Simulation started on 9/19/02 at 16:30:04 and stopped at 16:30:10
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| Forecast: Total Project cost |
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Summary: |
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Certainty Level is 74.03% |
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Certainty Range is from
-Infinity to 50.00 |
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Display Range is from 30.00 to
65.00 |
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Entire Range is from 34.75 to 63.68
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After 3,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean
is 0.09 |
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Statistics: |
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Value |
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Trials |
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3000 |
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Mean |
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46.67 |
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Median |
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46.36 |
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Mode |
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--- |
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Standard Deviation |
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4.93 |
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Variance |
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24.31 |
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Skewness |
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0.30 |
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Kurtosis |
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2.68 |
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Coeff. of Variability |
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0.11 |
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Range Minimum |
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34.75 |
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Range Maximum |
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63.68 |
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Range Width |
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28.93 |
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Mean Std. Error |
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0.09 |
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| Forecast: Total Project cost (cont'd) |
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Percentiles: |
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Percentile |
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Value |
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0% |
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34.75 |
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5% |
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39.06 |
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10% |
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40.37 |
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15% |
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41.52 |
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20% |
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42.23 |
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25% |
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42.97 |
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30% |
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43.73 |
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35% |
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44.40 |
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40% |
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45.00 |
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45% |
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45.58 |
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50% |
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46.36 |
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55% |
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47.00 |
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60% |
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47.79 |
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65% |
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48.44 |
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70% |
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49.29 |
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75% |
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50.16 |
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80% |
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50.94 |
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85% |
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52.00 |
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90% |
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53.18 |
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95% |
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55.24 |
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100% |
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63.68 |
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| End of Forecast |
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Assumptions |
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| Assumptions: Design |
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Triangular distribution with parameters: |
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Minimum |
4.00 |
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(=I6) |
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Likeliest |
6.00 |
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(=J6) |
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Maximum |
10.00 |
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(=K6) |
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Selected range is from 4.00 to 10.00 |
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| Assumptions: Build |
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Triangular distribution with parameters: |
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Minimum |
16.00 |
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(=I7) |
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Likeliest |
20.00 |
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(=J7) |
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Maximum |
35.00 |
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(=K7) |
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Selected range is from 16.00 to 35.00 |
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| Assumptions: Test |
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Triangular distribution with parameters: |
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Minimum |
11.00 |
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(=I8) |
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Likeliest |
15.00 |
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(=J8) |
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Maximum |
23.00 |
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(=K8) |
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Selected range is from 11.00 to 23.00 |
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| End of Assumptions |
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